Not too much happened this weekend on the Modern front as there was no SCG Open (or Classic for that matter), GPs, or other large tournaments. While there are certainly some MTGO results we could examine—which indicate that Eldrazi is dominating the queues—I wanted to take a step back and comb through the lists from SCG Regionals. Regionals happened the weekend of February 6th-7th, the same weekend as the Pro Tour where Eldrazi (Colorless, UR, and Processor) was the clear breakout deck from the tournament. Some people who were watching the Pro Tour were able to assemble these lists and bring them to Regionals but clearly many folks just played whatever deck they had available to them. Eldrazi makes a big impact at Regionals, however, given the short window of time between the published PT lists and Regionals it was very likely underrepresented.
So here are the spread sheets, I’ll break them down afterward.
The numbers in each column represent the number of each archetype in the top eight for that given tournament. There are 43 separate archetypes represented here, 45 if you separate B and Bw Eldrazi and W and WG Hatebears. This representation is actually pretty excellent. Even when breaking down the percentages of top eight appearances, the data from Regionals would give the impression of a fairly wide-open meta.
There’s a lot here so let’s see if we can wrangle up some of these numbers.
TIER ONE
Affinity—Affinity was the most successful archetype. With 16 decks making the top eight in 15 Regionals appearances, Affinity accounted for 13% of the top eight. Furthermore, Affinity had the most tournament wins (1st place) with three or 20% of all wins. Going forward, Affinity is in an excellent place in the metagame as it has a strong game one against most decks in the format and is favored against various flavors of Eldrazi. Right now it is entirely worth it to keep Stony Silence, Hurkyl’s Recall, and Shatterstorm in your sideboards in order to combat the robot army.
Colorless Eldrazi—Colorless Eldrazi put up 10 top eight finishes with two wins. The deck represents 12% of the total top eights. However, this isn’t the entire story if you lump various Eldrazi decks together as they each seek to abuse Eldrazi Temple and Eye of Ugin. If you put Colorless Eldrazi, UR Eldrazi, Bw Eldrazi, UB Eldrazi, and EldraziTron together you get 15.8% of the metagame which is pretty insane given that the Colorless Eldrazi/UR Eldrazi were not well known archetypes before the Pro Tour. Players most likely put the deck together on whim and still managed to do well with it despite not getting in much practice. I really think a ban for Eye of Ugin and/or Eldrazi Temple is in order, though this will depend on how the deck fares at Grand Prix Bologna, Detroit, and Melbourne at the beginning of March.
TIER TWO
Burn—Burn is the third most represented deck with eight top eight appearances, or 6% of the top eight. This 6% number is a significant drop from the double digit percentages of Affinity and Colorless Eldrazi indicating that those two decks occupy the top tier of the format and Burn is at the top of the second tier. Burn did have one tournament win, in Plano, Texas and despite not having a great Eldrazi match-up is still very much a pillar of the format.
Merfolk, Jund, Kiki Chord, and Tron—Each of these decks made up 5% of the top eight meta. Merfolk had two tournament wins, GR Tron had one, and Jund /Kiki Chord had none. While I don’t have the data to determine the win percentage of each deck, or even the percentage of the larger field, it would seem that Merfolk was actually a reasonable choice for this tournament. While the Eldrazi match-up isn’t a slam dunk, the maindeck Spreading Seas paired with a relatively fast clock means that it’s at least winnable. Merfolk has a difficult time against Affinity but the first place deck from Lexena jammed four Hurkyl’s Recalls in the side to help shore it up.
Abzan Company— 4% of the top eight meta. I’m a big fan of this deck since I got to play it in the Pro Tour Gauntlet on MTGO. Abzan Company is just a versatile deck with the ability to combo kill your opponent, aggressively beat down, or even grind out the long game with Gavony Township. This deck has a reasonable match-up against Eldrazi, Burn, and Infect and good sideboard options against Affinity.
Ad Nauseam, Infect, and Bw Eldrazi—Each of these decks were tied with 3.3% of the top eight meta. Ad Nauseam oddly enough had two tournament wins perhaps suggesting that non-interactivity might be where you want to be against Eldrazi, Affinity, and Burn. Incidentally having Angel’s Grace and Phyrexian Unlife as part of your combo puts you in a pretty good spot against the aggro decks of the format and the instant speed nature of the deck is good against blue based control lists seeking to disrupt you with countermagic. Infect seems to have fallen out of favor somewhat recently but still put up some reasonable numbers. Bw Eldrazi was the Eldrazi deck of choice before the Pro Tour and put up some decent results at Regionals though I would expect this deck to be replaced with UR and Colorless versions of the deck.
TIER THREE
These decks made up 1.6%-2.5% of the top eight meta.
Zoo
Abzan
UR Eldrazi
Jeskai Control
Scapeshift
Elves
Hatebears
Blue Moon*
OUTLIERS AND ROGUE LISTS
These decks had only one copy each in the top eight or .8% of the top eight meta.
Aggro (Goblins, Bogles, Allies, RUG Prowess)
Control (UW, Esper, Grixis, 4C, Lantern)
Combo (Goryo’s Vengeance, Jeskai Ascendancy, Krark Clan, Storm, Puresteel, Bant Retreat)
So here’s the thing, since Eldrazi dominated the Pro Tour, these results are not exactly representative of the format moving forward; I would expect that Affinity and Eldrazi will constitute an even larger percentage of the top tables in the next few weeks.What the results from Regionals do speak to is that on the more local level, Modern is diverse, interesting, and very much alive. Despite a large contingent of pros disliking the format for Pro Tours, Modern is continuing to thrive everywhere from FNMs to GPs. If you’re interested in any of the decklists from Regionals, they are all available on Starcitygames.com.
*My friend Kei Rong won Providence states with a pretty solid Blue Moon list. This deck looks good if Eldrazi continues to be a factor and has reasonable match-ups against a lot of the meta.
Blue Moon
| Creatures (8) 4 Snapcaster Mage 3 Pia and Kiran Nalaar 1 Vendilion Clique | Lands (22) 7 Island 2 Mountain 4 Flooded Strand 1 Polluted Delta 4 Scalding Tarn 2 Steam Vents 2 Sulfur Falls Spells (30) 1 Batterskull 1 Vedalken Shackles 4 Blood Moon 1 Burst Lightning 2 Cryptic Command 3 Electrolyze 4 Lightning Bolt 3 Mana Leak 3 Remand 3 Spell Snare 1 Roast 4 Serum Visions Sideboard (15) 1 Batterskull 1 Spellskite 1 Izzet Staticaster 3 Spreading Seas 1 Dispel 2 Negate 1 Keranos, God of Storms 1 Jace, Architect of Thought 2 Anger of the Gods 2 Vandalblast |
In terms of Magic, Shawn Massak is a Modern enthusiast, with a penchant for tier two decks, counterspells, and pre Eighth Edition frames. In terms of life, Shawn lives in Brighton, MA where he works as an employment coordinator for people with disabilities, plays guitar in an indie-pop band, and spends his free time reading comics, complaining about pro-wrestling, and wishing his apartment allowed dogs as pets.