This past weekend we saw the first real Modern events after the bannings—the first events without Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom. For data purposes, we have some MTGO Daily results and the SCG Modern Classic in Atlanta to examine. Before delving into decklists, it’s worth noting that the sample size is still very small here. I couldn’t find the exact number of players at the Classic, but we’re looking at most, a few hundred players in one particular location the first week after 12% of the metagame ceased to exist. Without further ado:
If you were to lay it out it would look something like this:
Aggro (11)
2—Temur Delver
3—Merfolk
2—Affinity
2—Burn
2—Zoo
Midrange (3)
1—Jund
1—BW Eldrazi
1—Abzan Company (with infinite life combo)
Combo (2)
1—Grishoalbrand
1—Infect
Obviously, the Aggro/Midrange/Combo categories are slightly tenuous but still helpful for examining the kinds of decks at the top tables.
The standout deck of the tournament was undoubtedly Temur Delver, with two copies in the top 16 and Todd Anderson winning it all. Here’s his list:
Todd Anderson RUG Delver
| Creatures (15) 4 Delver of Secrets 2 Hooting Mandrills 4 Snapcaster Mage 4 Tarmogoyf 1 Young Pyromancer | Lands (20) 1 Forest 2 Island 1 Mountain 2 Breeding Pool 4 Misty Rainforest 4 Scalding Tarn 2 Steam Vents 1 Stomping Ground 3 Wooded Foothills Spells (25) 1 Dismember 1 Izzet Charm 4 Lightning Bolt 1 Mutagenic Growth 4 Remand 3 Spell Pierce 1 Thought Scour 3 Vapor Snag 3 Gitaxian Probe 4 Serum Visions Sideboard (15) 2 Grim Lavamancer 3 Spreading Seas 2 Threads of Disloyalty 3 Ancient Grudge 1 Dispel 2 Gut Shot 2 Surgical Extraction |
While this isn’t a new strategy, it’s one that’s flown under the radar for quite some time. Anderson’s list looks like a million bucks against the other linear aggro decks at the top tables as it combines cheap disruption with plenty of pressure in the form of Delver, Goyf, Snapcaster, and Mandrils. While the deck does do a lot of damage to itself, with a three color manabase and Gitaxian Probe/Mutagenic Growth, the combination of Bolt, Vapor Snag, Spell Pierce, and Remand can serve to both protect creatures and push through damage.
Out of the sideboard, we have Grim Lavamancer (a house against Affinity and Infect), Gut Shot (Affinity and Infect), and Ancient Grudge (once again…for Affinty/Infect as well as Tron). Not only does this deck have plenty of game against the aggro and aggro/combo decks, the disruption package coupled with a quick clock makes this reasonable against the big mana decks of the format (Tron and Eldrazi). The reason this deck struggled during a heavy Twin meta was because of all the BGx decks that rose up to take down the infinite exarch army. Inquisition of Kozilek taking RUG’s only threat, Abrupt Decay not caring about countermagic, and a bunch of other efficient removal made Jund and Abzan less than stellar match-ups for the tempo deck.
While Anderson’s list is obviously well tuned, a different version of RUG Delver won a Modern daily the day before the Modern classic. MTGO user SlN took took down the daily with this list:
SlN RUG Delver
| Creatures (14) 4 Delver of Secrets 4 Hooting Mandrills 2 Snapcaster Mage 4 Tarmogoyf | Lands (18) 1 Breeding Pool 1 Forest 3 Island 4 Misty Rainforest 4 Scalding Tarn 2 Steam Vents 1 Stomping Ground 2 Wooded Foothills Spells (28) 1 Deprive 2 Disrupting Shoal 1 Electrolyze 4 Gitaxian Probe 4 Lightning Bolt 2 Mana Leak 4 Serum Visions 2 Simic Charm 1 Spell Snare 3 Stubborn Denial 4 Thought Scour Sideboard (15) 3 Ancient Grudge 3 Blood Moon 2 Dispel 3 Huntmaster of the Fells 2 Pyroclasm 1 Rending Volley 1 Roast |
Despite having a very similar strategy, the lists look remarkably different. SlN chose to play a full set of Hooting Mandrils to supplement Stubborn Denial as a means of efficient and ferocious disruption instead of Spell Pierce. SlN opted out of playing Remand and chose a counter package with Mana Leak, Deprive, and Disrupting Shoal. Post Board, SlN looks like he’s trying to go bigger than the aggro decks with a bunch of Huntmaster of the Fells and Pyroclasms. Instead of Spreading Seas to disrupt the big mana decks, SlN chose Blood Moon to slow down the Tron overlords.
While I like the look of Anderson’s list better on paper, it’s entirely possible that the optimal version of the deck hasn’t been discovered yet and may incorporate aspects of each list.
Perhaps the most interesting thing to come from the results of the Modern Classic is the complete lack of Tron anywhere in the top sixteen. Many, myself included, believed the deck would be a force to be reckoned with after Twin, a historically bad pre-board match-up, exited the format. Yet, here we are, no Tron anywhere in sight.
Despite not being represented in the top sixteen in Atlanta, I don’t think this is the death knell or anything of the sort for Tron. Here are some things to think about:
- Without knowing the number of Tron decks, or even the number of players in the tournament, we can’t determine the deck’s win percentage in Atlanta. If very few players sleeved up their Urza’s Towers, then it feels premature to complain about the deck’s overall performance.
- The first few weeks of most “new” formats, Aggro decks tend to be over represented. Presenting a fast clock against an unknown field is a tried and true strategy. Midrange decks will adapt to beat these decks in the upcoming weeks and Tron naturally preys on those decks.
- With half of Tron’s sideboard slots being previously devoted to Twin, an optimal board for a more aggressive meta perhaps hasn’t been fully explored by most players. Kozilek’s Return seems like the nutter butter against Affinity but how many do you play? Furthermore, it’s possible players weren’t able to get their hands on an in-demand mythic that was just released a few days ago.
Essentially, I don’t think Tron is dead and should be a viable choice moving forward if the meta adjusts to the influx of linear aggressive strategies.
So yeah, as a player who doesn’t particularly enjoy the combat step, I am not thrilled about the top sixteen of Atlanta. However, I am patient and believe that these results represent a very small sample size at the dawn of a format without Twin or Bloom. In the upcoming weeks I would expect things to adjust and evolve in the way that metagames do. If you’re hoping to smash face with Celestial Colonnade, flip Jace, trigger Valakut, or suspend Lotus Bloom, just give it some time.
In terms of Magic, Shawn Massak is a Modern enthusiast, with a penchant for tier two decks, counterspells, and pre Eighth Edition frames. In terms of life, Shawn lives in Brighton, MA where he works as an employment coordinator for people with disabilities, plays guitar in an indie-pop band, and spends his free time reading comics, complaining about pro-wrestling, and wishing his apartment allowed dogs as pets.