I’m a big fan of the Limited Resources podcast, and one of the big concepts that Marshall & Co. periodically hammer home is the importance of not being “ROTTY”—i.e., not engaging in “results-oriented thinking.” That means avoiding the impulse to assess a decision you made in a game of Magic based on what happened after. Instead, you should always make the best decision possible based on the information you have at the time, and the principles of the game that you have learned. Because this is a game of both skill and luck, that means that even if you make the correct decision, it’s not always going to result in a win.
It’s kind of a complex topic, as the heavily belabored paragraph above might indicate. Of course it doesn’t mean not paying attention to the results of multiple decisions over a long period of time; that’s just good research. But it does mean discarding the outliers and doing the exact same thing in your next game—if it’s correct—that led to a loss in the last one.
This past week, as part of a two-week, double 0-3 skid for me in Team Draft League, I was presented with the most perfect tipping-point example of when you shouldn’t be ROTTY that I could have hoped for. Against the Monkey Honeymoon team, one of whose members once got savagely cock-blocked by Malcolm Gladwell (which is why I’m going to use as many Gladwell book puns in this article as possible), I drafted what I thought (and still think) was a pretty solid, if unexciting Gruul Beats deck.
I first-picked a Temur Sabertooth over Dragonscale General (correct?), and ended up getting shipped multiple Bathe in Dragonfires in pack one, as well as an Arc Lightning followed by a Mardu Heartpiercer in pack three. I had a metric fuck-ton of red removal, but unfortunately zero Falter effects, like Barrage of Boulders or Roar of Challenge—which I think are super-key to a winning Gruul deck in this format—or even any “reach” cards like Awaken the Bear or Become Immense. I just don’t think they were in the draft. In any case, that’s kind of beside the point.
Here’s what happened: Game one I sat down across from Sean “What the Dog Saw” Morse. I had very little idea about the contents of his deck, as he was furthest away from me in the draft. I was on the play, and my opening hand was something like Summit Prowler, Feral Krushok, a Bathe in Dragonfire, and I think two Mountains and two Forests. Not the fastest hand, but not a shipper, either. Over the next few turns I didn’t draw any early-drop creatures, but I did draw a second Bathe in Dragonfire and a Bring Low, so I was feeling pretty good about my situation once I started to deploy my threats.
I played out the Prowler and the Krushok, and started to get in there for chunks of damage. Then Sean played a random morph, followed by a Hooded Assassin with a +1/+1 counter on it. He shipped the turn back and on turn six I played my sixth land, with 2X Bathe in Dragonfires and the Bring Low in hand.
What to do? At this point Sean was at like 12 life, and I could have double-killed his creatures with 2X Dragonfire, and gotten in there for nine damage. (I don’t totally remember the exact life totals.) Or, thinking that Sean was probably going to try to double-block my Krushok to kill it, I could hold off and go for the two-for-one with Bring Low. So my choices were either a two-for-two (2X Bathe for his two creatures) or a two-for-one in combat (using the Bring Low), leaving two removal spells in my hand.
I chose the latter, and that’s just what happened: He double-blocked the Krushok, I killed the Hooded Assassin with Bring Low, and dropped Sean to eight life.
And then on the next turn Sean played Silumgar, the Drifting Death. Brakes fucking APPLIED, son. Because of the hexproof, I couldn’t even swing in and post-combat finish off the dragon, two-for-one-ing myself in the process (but a two-for-one I would have gladly taken at that point). A couple turns later, with my offense fully stalled out, I said to Sean, “I would have definitely played that turn differently had I known that Silumgar was coming.” If I had double-killed his creatures then, I would have dropped Sean to three life, meaning that even after Silumgar came down I would have been clear to swing in for lethal.
But then I thought better of that, and said, “But I actually don’t think I played that turn wrong.” And I don’t think I did. I had zero way to know that Silumgar was coming, because obviously Sean had first-picked it and none of my team had seen it. And, generally, getting a two-for-one with nine power on the board and shipping the turn back with two strong removal spells in your hand is going to get you there 90% of the time; Silumgar was pretty much the card that punished me worst for my line of play.
So that’s the lesson I take from my game. If I’m faced with the same situation tomorrow at GP Cleveland, I hope I can stay the course and do the exact same damn thing: Take the card-advantage play—the correct, 90% play—and hope for the best.
Oh, and speaking of GP Cleveland, I’ll be there battling it out with fellow Hipsters Carrie O’Hara and Zach Barash, as well as noted streamer Gabe “The Doc.” R. If you see any of us, say hello! Until then, don’t be ROTTY!
23/17 is a Hipsters of the Coast column focused on Limited play—primarily draft and sealed, but also cubing, 2HG, and anything else we can come up with. The name refers to the “Golden Ratio” of a Limited deck: 23 spells and 17 lands. Follow Hunter at @hrslaton.