This was a great summer for Eternal formats on Magic Online (well.. you know.. aside from the client issues). There’s been a ton of downward pressure on the prices of Legacy staples for a variety of reasons that opened a really nice window to buy into Legacy and/or Vintage. On top of all that, we got some good news with the Khans spoilers, for those wishing the format was cheaper to play. This week, I’d like to talk about why I think the window of opportunity is starting to close.
Factors That Are Making Eternal Cheaper
- Vintage Masters
With next week’s update to MTGO, Vintage Masters will no longer be available, after having been opened heavily for three and a half months. The fact that VMA packs were also prize support for Vintage/Legacy events, all the way down to the lowly two-man queue until early September, also gave it a level of support that even Modern Masters never saw (online). This was something that was pushed on us pretty heavily to get a lot of product out there, and get a lot of copies of important, expensive (and in some cases, previously non-existent) Eternal staples into circulation.
- They Made Fetch Happen
Now that the market has had a month to digest the great revelation that fetchlands would be returning, it should be very clear and obvious that this is going to lower the barrier to entry for Legacy and Vintage. Prices of digital fetches plummeted hard, following the announcement at PAX. They’ll continue to drop, and will probably stabilize between $4-6, as a typical staple rare in the first set of a block does, while it’s being heavily opened.
- Re-“prints” Of Important Staples Through Other Channels
I was originally going to talk about MOCS promos, here, but then I remembered that the Flashback Draft is another key tool that WotC has at their disposal for pumping more staples into the ecosystem. We’ve seen some pretty high-quality promos, of late, such as Show and Tell, LED, an encore for Force of Will. You can bet that a Griselbrand is on the way, seeing as they recently commissioned new art for everyone’s favorite demon for next year’s Grand Prix promo, and I can’t see them not using that badass art online, as well. But still, WotC has shown that they are committed to using promos as a safety valve for keeping the price of these sweet formats a bit more accessible.
Vintage Masters
I’ll be short and sweet about this, Vintage Masters has decreased the prices of Legacy staples for a moment in time, but it will not be everlasting (kudos, if you got that awful 90s pop reference). Look at the chart below. It represents the total price of every card in the set. After the early volatility ended in the beginning of July*, and stable prices were established, the total value of the set gradually decreased throughout the summer, almost falling back to its low-point towards the end of August.
Why did prices start to rise towards the end of August? The Vintage Masters prize payout for Legacy and Vintage events ended, and Eternal payouts reverted to M15. While drafts were still available in the play lobby, cutting out this supply certainly had an effect on prices. The rising prices through September show us what happens when we lose some of the supply. In less than a week, we will lose all of the new supply, so get on board, before this treasure cruise (ugh, dying to talk about this card, more, but we’ll wait until next week; expect to see it on the stream, soon, though!) sets sail without you.
Fetches
To give you some perspective of what a multi-format all-star rare’s price trajectory looks like, here’s what happened to Thoughtseize when it was reprinted in Theros. Now, I will say that these fetches might behave a little bit differently, on account of the fact that many Modern players already owned Thoughtseize, but Khanslaught (I love that name) fetches are brand new to Modern, so that will create some increased demand. On the flip side, I think they will be less played in Standard (due to requiring you to run a decent number of basics), so maybe these two effects will negate each other, to some degree. In any case, I think Thoughtseize is a close enough comparable.
So yeah, I think this chart with a trajectory of +/- 20% depending on which fetches prove to be most popular in Standard (the format that will be responsible for most of the aggregate demand). Courser synergies lead me to believe that the green ones will initially see the most play in Standard, so Polluted Delta and Flooded Strand should become very affordable. Of course, because I’m advocating buying all of the other staples ASAP, I couldn’t fault you for wanting to buy your fetches immediately, so you can play with those other freshly-purchased Eternal staples, sooner; the amount that the fetches will fall by, at this point, isn’t going to be that significant, relative to the cost of a Legacy/Vintage deck (I think Strand/Delta will fall by ~$10 each as Khans starts getting heavily opened, online).
Here’s the important takeaway about fetches, though. Because they’re getting cheaper, and because it brings Modern players another step closer to having a Legacy collection, it will increase the overall market for Legacy staples. If more people want to get into Legacy, you have more demand, makes sense, right? Well, if you have more demand, guess what happens to prices? They go UP! I 100% believe that the massive influx of these cheap Khanslaught fetches will entice more people to try to get into Legacy, which in turn will cause the prices of other staples to rise.
Promos and Flashbacks
Wasteland has been one of the biggest barriers to entry for Legacy on MODO, as of late. A curious thing, given that the card comes in at the uncommon rarity. However, many rejoiced at the prospect of the price coming down due to Tempest block Flashback Drafts. And come down it did, falling from its all-time high of 153.6 to 98.8, a whopping 35.7%! I know, that price is still a bit rich for many to buy a digital representation of a card, but that might be as good as it gets for awhile.
I think the bearish trend on Wasteland is over. So does Surrak… okay, okay, you got me, I just wanted another excuse to use that picture
Tempest flashbacks ended a week ago, and in that short time, Wasteland has already recaptured 10% of its value. I wish I wrote this article a week ago to warn you, because I fully expected that to happen, but a new set came out and it needed an Eternal review, so sorry about that. I don’t think Wasteland is done, though. Because of the depressed prices on other Legacy staples and the aforementioned influx of fetches about to enter the economy, Wasteland is coming back up. Other flashback staples and MOCS promos follow a very similar trajectory, so if you want these cards, the best time to buy is within a week of when they are distributed, because after that, they just trend back up towards (and in many cases, above) their old prices.
Vintage Super League
There’s one last thing I’d like to touch on, related to this topic. Maybe you’ve been living under a rock for the last few months and haven’t heard of Randy Buehler’s brainchild, Vintage Super League. I’m not here to tell you what it is, but the Cliff Notes version is that it is a 10-person round robin tournament, featuring some of the biggest personalities in the game, battling every week in Vintage matches. Everything is streamed, and the production quality has shown significant improvement (not to say it started poorly, but they’ve worked out some kinks). They pulled in nearly 3000 viewers this week, and I know countless more watch the replays that the make available. In short, this league is capturing the hearts and minds of the Magic community, and making people who have never been interested in Vintage before interested in Vintage. I don’t necessarily know how to quantify this, but if I were a betting man, I would bet that increased interest would correlate to increased demand. I think more people are going to want to give Vintage a shot, and MODO seems to be the most feasible place to do it.. sure you can print out some proxies and play for funsies at the kitchen table, but there’s a certain allure to playing in an event that counts for something. Also, LSV isn’t going to play Vintage with you at the kitchen table, but you can bet that you’ll see him in the Dailies. I myself have faced him several times in queues. I’ve also battled Menendian and Shay. There’s a very real cool factor to watching these guys on the stream, and then seeing them jump into a random two-man queue against you in the format that makes you feel like you’re actually a powerful wizard. Don’t sleep on Vintage, folks, because with supply disappearing, and intrigue increasing, I can’t see the prices getting much lower.
*VMA prices were a little crazy in the beginning of July, due to WotC making an announcement that they would be cutting off the supply earlier than everyone had anticipated. Prices surged, which is why you see a bit of a valley around this time. They later reversed this decision, but the prices stuck, for the most part, and only gradually decreased for the next month and a half.