I’m sure, by now, that some of you are familiar with the Legacy metagame stats I aggregate and break down every quarter. With a Modern Grand Prix just days away—as well as a Modern PTQ season with another month to go—I thought it might be good time to crunch the numbers and let you know what sort of meta you can expect at a large event. As much as Tron might be everywhere at your local store, anecdotal evidence won’t get you very far when you venture out to play with the rest of the world, let alone the rest of your state. For those that are unfamiliar with my Legacy metagame analyses, and can’t be bothered to click the link, here are the important parts:
“We will assign each archetype two points for finishing 9th-16th (unfortunately, we only have access to top 8 data for PTQs), three points for 5th-8th, four points for 3rd-4th, five points for 2nd, and six points for 1st, then average out the data from the events to arrive at what the expected metagame should look like.”
The method described above was developed by Frank Karsten for analyzing the “winner’s circle” metagame. These results are meant to show the likeliness of seeing a given archetype at the top tables. I don’t want to mislead anyone into thinking that they can safely forget about the plethora of decks that exist in this great format and assume that they will be playing against nothing but Delver Rock and Show and Tell Twin decks, because it is not uncommon to see some pretty wacky shit in the first couple of rounds (or the later rounds if you have fallen below x-3).”
Because I only had access to top 8 data, I decided to take more data points (events) to have a larger sample size. This meant going beyond US/CAN data and also looking at EMEA/APAC. You’ll see three columns, below. The first column is the percentage of an archetype at the top tables in the North American metagame, the second is the percentage for Europe and Asia, and the third column is the overall percentage. I’m sure we’ll have travelers from far and wide for this event, so don’t completely discount results from across the pond!
| Archetype | US/CAN | EMEA/APAC | Overall | |
| 1 | Affinity | 12.66% | 8.33% | 10.58% |
| 2 | Tempo Twin | 11.41% | 9.14% | 10.32% |
| 3 | Melira/Angel Pod | 10.17% | 3.49% | 6.97% |
| 4 | BG Rock | 9.43% | 7.53% | 8.52% |
| 5 | Jund | 4.96% | 10.75% | 7.74% |
| 6 | Kiki Control (UWR) | 4.71% | 1.88% | 3.35% |
| 7 | RUG Scapeshift | 4.47% | 5.91% | 5.16% |
| 7 | Kiki Pod | 4.47% | 5.11% | 4.77% |
| 9 | UWR Control | 3.72% | 3.49% | 3.61% |
| 9 | GR Tron | 3.72% | 1.88% | 2.84% |
| 9 | UB Fae | 3.72% | 1.61% | 2.71% |
| 12 | Tarmo Twin | 3.47% | 3.76% | 3.61% |
| 12 | Junk Midrange | 3.47% | 3.23% | 3.35% |
| 14 | BW Midrange | 2.48% | 0.00% | 1.29% |
| 15 | Burn | 1.74% | 2.69% | 2.19% |
| 16 | UWR Twin | 1.49% | 0.00% | 0.77% |
| 16 | Ad Nauseum | 1.49% | 0.00% | 0.77% |
| 18 | Hexproof | 1.24% | 0.00% | 0.65% |
| 19 | Merfolk | 0.99% | 5.11% | 2.97% |
| 19 | GW Hatebears | 0.99% | 3.76% | 2.32% |
| 19 | BW Tokens | 0.99% | 0.81% | 0.90% |
| 19 | Infect | 0.99% | 0.00% | 0.52% |
| 19 | UWR Geist Midrange | 0.99% | 0.00% | 0.52% |
| 19 | Geist Twin | 0.99% | 0.00% | 0.52% |
| 25 | UR Delver | 0.74% | 1.88% | 1.29% |
| 25 | UW Delver | 0.74% | 0.81% | 0.77% |
| 25 | UR Kiki Fae | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.39% |
| 25 | Rb Burn | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.39% |
| 25 | Zur | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.39% |
| 25 | GR Scapeshift | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.39% |
| 25 | All-in Twin | 0.74% | 0.00% | 0.39% |
| 32 | Living End | 0.00% | 3.76% | 1.81% |
| 32 | UW Midrange-Control | 0.00% | 2.69% | 1.29% |
| 32 | RUG Delver | 0.00% | 2.15% | 1.03% |
| 32 | Reanimator | 0.00% | 1.88% | 0.90% |
| 32 | Tribal Zoo | 0.00% | 1.88% | 0.90% |
| 32 | Mono Red Burn | 0.00% | 1.08% | 0.52% |
| 32 | UG Fae | 0.00% | 1.08% | 0.52% |
| 32 | Four-Color Geist Midrange | 0.00% | 1.08% | 0.52% |
| 32 | Zoo | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.39% |
| 32 | Mill | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.39% |
| 32 | Soul Sisters | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.39% |
| 32 | Blue Moon | 0.00% | 0.81% | 0.39% |
Whoa! That’s a pretty long and overwhelming list. How can we possibly prepare for that many different archetypes with only 15 sideboard slots?! Fortunately, if we take a closer look, some of these are misleading. There are a number of archetypes that can be grouped together. For instance, we can group most of the midrange Overgrown Tomb decks together, and most Splinter Twin decks together. Affinity isn’t really top dog, when Rock, Twin, and Pod all come in several different varieties.
| Archetype | US/CAN | EMEA/APAC | Overall | |
| 1 | BGx Midrange | 17.87% | 21.51% | 19.61% |
| 2 | URx Twin | 17.12% | 12.90% | 15.10% |
| 3 | Pod | 14.64% | 8.60% | 11.74% |
| 4 | Affinity | 12.66% | 8.33% | 10.58% |
| 5 | U(w/r) Control | 8.44% | 8.87% | 8.65% |
| 6 | Scapeshift | 5.21% | 5.91% | 5.55% |
| 7 | Fae | 4.47% | 2.69% | 3.61% |
| 8 | Tron | 3.72% | 1.88% | 2.84% |
| 9 | Other | 2.98% | 1.61% | 2.32% |
| 10 | Burn | 2.48% | 3.76% | 3.10% |
| 10 | BW Midrange | 2.48% | 0.00% | 1.29% |
| 12 | Geist Midrange | 1.99% | 1.08% | 1.55% |
| 13 | Delver | 1.49% | 4.84% | 3.10% |
| 13 | Ad Nauseum | 1.49% | 0.00% | 0.77% |
| 15 | Merfolk | 0.99% | 5.11% | 2.97% |
| 15 | GW Hatebears | 0.99% | 3.76% | 2.32% |
| 15 | BW Tokens | 0.99% | 0.81% | 0.90% |
| 18 | Living End | 0.00% | 3.76% | 1.81% |
| 18 | Zoo | 0.00% | 2.69% | 1.29% |
| 18 | Reanimator | 0.00% | 1.88% | 0.90% |
From the above table, it seems the three pillars of the format in Richmond—Twin, Pod, and Affinity—has expanded to the “Big Five,” and Rock’s various flavors have eclipsed all of the former boogeymen. In Europe and Asia, the Golgari have spread their reach even further, coming in at almost DOUBLE the next closest archetype. I knew Rock was catching on, but I did not realize it was to this extent! After we get past the Big Five, we have a bunch of fringe archetypes. Here are some stray observations on them:
- Scapeshift seems worth noting, as it has picked up in popularity after taking down GP Minneapolis.
- Could Worcester finally be Bitterblossom‘s coming-out party? The numbers for the grouped archetype are propped up a bit by some less common variants that made a single top 8 appearance, such as UR and UG Fae, but if we look at the more fragmented list (the first table), we can see that UB Fae is tied for the #9 spot with UWR Control and GR Tron, two popular decks. Don’t completely write the Fae out!
- There was a ZUR deck in the “other” category! Yes, a Zur deck top-8’d a 166-person PTQ in Orlando.
- The successful Burn lists have all cut white. Back in Richmond, a friend of mine went deep into day two with the three-color version, but it seems that straight-red, or a light splash for Bump in the Night, is the way to go, now. Blame Eidolon of the Great Revel.
- Isn’t weird that nobody is casting Ad Nauseum in Europe? I thought they love that card, over there! (at least they do in Legacy)
Hopefully these numbers are useful for you whether it’s for deciding on the last few cards for your sideboard, or just what deck you’re going to play. If you aren’t going to Worcester, may this help you with the remainder of the PTQ season. Oh, and say, “Hi,” if you see me, because I love meeting readers; it’s pretty much my favorite part of this gig! I’ll be wearing a Hipsters of the Coast shirt for one of the days, but if not, you can identify me (and the other writers of this blog that are attending) by our Casthaven sleeves and mats. Good luck to everyone battling!
Update: Here’s the raw data.